High Dividend REIT Concept For 2018, Yield 5.5%, 30-50% Upside

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This analysis report was collectively produced with High Dividend Opportunities co-authors Jussi Askola and Philip Mause.


The market is dear as we speak. The low rate of interest atmosphere has resulted in a lot capital flowing into the inventory market, inflicting some fairness sectors to turn into more and more costly. That is very true for a lot of Know-how, Progress and Momentum Shares.

That is additionally true for some “blue-chip” progress shares resembling Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP), Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), or Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), to call only a few. These are firms which can be characterised by a usually decrease threat profile, a major monitor file and a well-established market positioning. It’s no shock, then, that blue chips are relatively costly and that alternatives are uncommon.

There is no such thing as a free lunch at Wall Road, and on this sense, a decrease threat is supposedly rewarded with a decrease threat premium and, in the end, a decrease return.

However is the market actually that environment friendly? We doubt that. Reasonably, we predict the market usually fails to appropriately assess the chance facet by letting feelings take over fact-based reasoning. That is effectively mirrored in how share costs of comparatively steady firms preserve fluctuating over a variety over brief time durations. One quarter the market feels an organization is protected, simply to do a whole 180 diploma and alter its threat premiums drastically a couple of quarters later.

Generally that is effectively justified, however in different instances a lot much less so.

We really feel that one firm particularly that has suffered from such unwarranted change in market notion is Tanger Manufacturing unit Outlet Facilities (NYSE:SKT), a blue-chip REIT with strong fundamentals however with a really unfavorable market notion.

Image result for tanger outlets logo

In lower than 12 months, the share worth was nearly minimize in half regardless of reaching progress in FFO, dividend, and asset worth over the identical time interval.

Tanger ranks among the many highest-quality Actual Property Funding Trusts (REITs), because it combines:

  1. A novel portfolio of belongings with superior enterprise economics.
  2. Finest-in-class administration with a major monitor file of overachieving.
  3. Ample steadiness sheet with conservative leverage ratios.

It’s uncommon to discover a REIT that includes above-average qualities in all three areas; it’s much more uncommon to search out one promoting at an opportunistic valuation.

Decrease-Danger, Web-Resilient Retail Portfolio

One of many key explanation why we favor Tanger relative to different giant retail REITs resembling Simon Property Group (NYSE:SPG), Macerich Firm (NYSE:MAC), GGP Inc. (NYSE:GGP) and Taubman Facilities (NYSE:TCO) is that we want the chance/reward potential of outlet facilities in comparison with common malls.

We imagine retail properties can’t all be put into the identical basket when speaking about threat. Some are far more affected by e-commerce than others, and it’s therefore essential to establish the comparatively extra defensive segments.

On this sense, we contemplate good high quality outlet facilities to be extra defensive than the common mall due to the lower cost level of the supplied items which makes shops extra aggressive with Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)-type firms. Everybody likes a discount, and that is precisely what shops are right here to supply. Because the CEO of Tanger likes to place it:

In GOOD occasions individuals LOVE a discount, and in TOUGH occasions, individuals NEED a discount.

Steven Tanger

By permitting producers to instantly promote their merchandise to the general public, shops are primarily reducing out the middlemen, leading to discounted costs and distinctive gives that may hardly be discovered on-line.

Subsequently, we imagine outlet facilities to be higher positioned to remain related in a digitalized world the place all the things will be ordered on-line. Identical to T.J. Maxx (NYSE:TJX) or Ross (NASDAQ:ROST), outlet facilities present a sense of treasure searching… a purchasing expertise that e-commerce can’t replicate.

Because of this shops have grown in quantity and achieved nice success. Folks take pleasure in spending a day right here and there strolling by means of an open-air outlet and trying to find bargains. Common malls, then again, are unlikely to supply nice bargains – making their pricing much less aggressive and the purchasing expertise much less differentiated.

Don’t get us mistaken – we’re bullish on malls as effectively, and we don’t contemplate them to be significantly endangered by the expansion of web; we simply assume shops could also be much more resilient. Tanger is so assured about its pricing that it gives its buyers an on the spot money refund of the distinction if they need to discover an merchandise bought at Tanger marketed for much less. The Finest Value Promise provides its clients confidence that they’re getting an important deal each time they store. Most malls simply can’t compete right here.

Image result for tanger best price promise

The corporate has understood this at an early stage and actually pioneered the market by constructing the nation’s first outlet middle. At this time, Tanger’s portfolio of outlet facilities has continued to increase and contains 44 outlet facilities in 22 states coast to coast and in Canada.

Listed below are a couple of random footage of Tanger outlet facilities to offer you a greater thought of what we’re speaking about.

Tanger Manufacturing unit Outlet Facilities – Myrtle Seashore:

Image result for tanger outlet center

Tanger Manufacturing unit Outlet Facilities – Savannah:

Tanger Outlets Savannah | I-95 Exit Guide

Tanger Manufacturing unit Outlet Facilities – Grand Rapids:

Image result for tanger outlet center

Tanger Manufacturing unit Outlet Facilities – Nationwide Harbor:

Image result for tanger outlet center

So much will be realized from this small pattern of images. First off, it’s clear that shops are to probably the most half open-air properties relatively than enclosed malls. Consider it or not, this makes a fairly large distinction by way of efficiency and future prospects.

In a Washington Submit article, Badger notes that for probably the most half it’s enclosed malls which can be affected by the expansion of e-commerce. However, open-air properties are thriving:

“At this time, malls which can be doing effectively aren’t merely people who cater to the rich; they’re outside “city facilities” and “way of life facilities” that rather more intently resemble the outdated city downtowns – group facilities with sidewalks, public areas, outside eating places – that the unique indoor mall many years in the past helped kill. The mall that is dying is, in truth, a particular sort of mall: It is enclosed, with an nameless, windowless exterior, wrapped in yards of parking, positioned off a freeway interchange. It is the sort of place the place you simply lose monitor of time and all connection to the surface world, the place you might as soon as go to expertise air con if you did not have it at house. The mall that is viable now could be totally different in some notable ways in which transcend the standard of its manufacturers: It is open-air as an alternative of hermetically sealed, its shops flip outward as an alternative of in…” [emphasis added]

We’re removed from being so bearish on enclosed indoor properties, however this illustrates effectively one level: outside open-air properties resembling Tanger’s shops are fascinating and right here to remain.

Tanger properties don’t solely provide bargains, they provide a novel purchasing expertise that could be very qualitative with a wide selection of first-quality, in-season merchandise, for the newest trend traits from the favourite model names and designers. Simply trying on the above footage, we are able to already establish traits, with typical tenants being robust retailers resembling Below Armour (NYSE:UAA), Nike (NYSE:NKE), H&M (OTCPK:HNNMY), Calvin Klein (NYSE:PVH), Ralph Lauren (NYSE:RL) and Michael Kors (NYSE:KORS), to call a couple of.

The purpose that we try to make right here is that outlet facilities don’t lease house to struggling malls, and relatively, are occupied by extremely fascinating manufacturers. Take a look at the images your self… you’ll not see any Sears (NASDAQ:SHLD), J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP) or Macy’s (NYSE:M)…

Shops are Very Fascinating… Sturdy Proof in Numbers

The excessive desirability of shops could be very effectively mirrored of their monetary efficiency. That is the actual proof that the web just isn’t “killing shops,” and that individuals (numerous them) are actively purchasing at them.

Tanger has traditionally achieved robust inner progress, as tenants are actually lined as much as lease house at its properties. The outcomes are that first off, the occupancy has by no means dipped beneath 95% since 1993:

And that the rental will increase have been very important:

Such numbers usually are not reflective of a “struggling property proprietor,” which is the widespread notion of the market as we speak. Tanger’s share worth has massively offered off as a result of fears over the expansion of e-commerce; but, trying on the basic efficiency, we see a thriving firm that is ready to persistently enhance rents, keep a sky-high occupancy and develop NOI.

Along with the engaging inner progress potential, Tanger has additionally a really favorable monitor file of exterior progress by new property growth and acquisitions. The REIT accomplished two new tasks final yr in Columbus, OH, and Daytona, FL, and really lately opened a brand new outlet in Fort Value, TX, and accomplished a serious growth in Lancaster, PA, this yr. It’s anticipated to generate accretive exterior progress, and administration notes that the tenant demand for outlet house stays robust.

Being by far the largest outlet middle proprietor of the US, Tanger advantages from a big aggressive benefit, as it will possibly make the most of its large scale to supply new properties, appeal to tenants and entry low-cost capital for its investments. It is a nice risk-mitigating issue, in our opinion, but in addition a major return-enhancing issue on the identical time:

This chart is simply stunning. It actually speaks for the superior economics and execution of the corporate. Over the past 20 years, Tanger has been one of many strongest performers of the whole REIT market and massively outperformed the broad REIT indexes (VNQ).

It additionally speaks for the best-in-class administration of Tanger. No REIT can outperform so considerably with out a superior workforce that’s extremely motivated and well-aligned with shareholders’ pursuits.

The sharp focus of administration on creating shareholder worth can be effectively mirrored within the following graph:

Tanger is a constituent of the S&P Excessive-Yield Dividend Aristocrat Index, having elevated dividends each yr since 1993, and this even contains the Nice Monetary Disaster. Furthermore, the will increase have traditionally been very substantial and even accelerating in recent times, with a CAGR of 12% up to now three years.

Market Inefficiency

The distinction in share worth efficiency and basic efficiency could be very substantial within the case of Tanger. Regardless of having saved posting strong outcomes, the share worth has offered off very considerably.

The truth is, the money circulation, dividends and even web asset worth have saved growing throughout the identical time-frame. Such clear divergence in pricing and fundamentals is, in our opinion, what makes Tanger so opportunistic as we speak.

The inventory didn’t unload as a result of poor outcomes, however relatively, on fears which can be but to be realized. The market has grown more and more anxious in regards to the future prospects of retail actual property in a world the place all the things will be ordered on-line, and subsequently determined to reward retail REIT traders with larger threat premiums.

We, nonetheless, contemplate these fears to be misplaced to a big extent. It’s clear that the expansion of e-commerce creates some disruption within the retail market, however that is nowhere as important because the market is implying as we speak.

We expect the market is mistaken within the case of Tanger and is creating market inefficiency as a result of following three causes:

  1. The market could also be overestimating the disruptive energy of e-commerce in opposition to conventional retailing. We imagine retail properties are engaging belongings to our society, and that their utility just isn’t at risk. It’s clear that e-commerce will carry on rising and sure tenants will undergo. Names together with Sears, Macy’s and J.C. Penney might even disappear. That mentioned, retail REITs usually are not retailers, they’re landlords. If tenants vacate, the REITs can change them with different ones which may be extra resilient to e-commerce. Among the giant tenants that we all know as we speak will go bankrupt, however others will come change them. It’s simply part of retailing.
  2. The market appears to place Tanger in the identical basket as different mall REITs regardless of not proudly owning malls however outlet facilities, which differ of their threat profile. As we famous earlier, we imagine outlet facilities have excessive endurance in a digitalized world, maybe much more so than malls. Shops are resilient as a result of their “worth orientation” and the “treasure searching” feeling that they create. It results in a differentiated and extra aggressive purchasing expertise, decreasing dangers alongside the way in which.
  3. The market can also fail to appreciate that Tanger has no publicity to malls. Not all retailers are created equal, and whereas some are significantly affected by the e-commerce, others are doing simply nice. At this time, for probably the most half, it’s actually the malls which can be struggling, however this hides an important majority of shops which proceed to carry out effectively in a digitalized world.

This final level is particularly evident in that Tanger has proven robust worth correlation with division retailer retailers resembling Sears, Macy’s and J.C. Penney. When such retailers offered off on poor outcomes, so did Tanger, usually by as much as 5% in a single day. This is unnecessary, and but, it’s precisely what has occurred.

We conclude that the market is reacting to feelings relatively than reasoning based mostly on actual details, creating market inefficiency within the share pricing. The feelings are tied to the fears over sure struggling tenants, however the details present that the occupancy, gross sales per sq. ft., NOI, FFO, dividends are all at or near file excessive ranges. Most significantly, Tanger doesn’t have any publicity to the struggling malls. These are the details.

Tax Reform Plan to Profit Retailers

The Wall Road Journal recently ran an article after the Senate tax invoice handed, and within the article was a desk evaluating the Home and Senate payments facet by facet, and the 20% anticipated company tax fee stood the take a look at of each Homes of Congress.

The drop from an efficient company tax fee of 30-35% presently to an anticipated 20% will likely be an enormous win for retailers or firms with the vast majority of revenues within the US and can push 2018 Earnings Per Share estimates up sharply when it occurs.

The present unfavorable notion for retail firms and shares (together with Retail and Mall REITs) might not final lengthy and will simply change traders’ notion when these firms begin posting better-than-expected earnings experiences.

Discount Valuation Leads to Sturdy Danger/Reward Final result

For a blue-chip identify, Tanger has heaps of worth to supply to traders as we speak. Regardless of being one of many highest-quality REITs on the market, it trades at a big low cost to friends and broad markets.

The corporate is presently expected to earn $2.54 in FFO per share in 2018. Presently buying and selling at $25, we calculate an FFO a number of of about 9.eight occasions, which is considerably discounting the intrinsic worth of Tanger, in our opinion. REITs buying and selling at such low FFO multiples sometimes are affected by some kind of points, resembling conflicted administration, a low-quality portfolio or extreme leverage. Within the case of Tanger, it’s fairly the other. All fundamentals take a look at, and the REIT didn’t miss a dividend cost even through the monetary disaster.

NAREIT contains Tanger within the Buying Heart peer group, however we imagine the perfect friends are the Class A mall REITs. Simon Property Teams sells for 12.eight occasions, Taubman Facilities at 12.1 occasions, Macerich at 13.three occasions and GGP at 13.three occasions anticipated 2018 FFO. We contemplate all of the talked about names right here to be broadly undervalued by the market, and but, Tanger trades at a big low cost even to them.

In comparison with the broad REIT market which trades at about 19 occasions FFO, it seems to be an important discount as effectively. Merely put, Tanger is an above-average high quality REIT promoting at a large low cost relative to many lower-quality names.

The threerd Quarter Efficiency Stays Sturdy

As long-term oriented traders, we don’t put an excessive amount of emphasis into the appraisal of quarterly outcomes, which can have some earnings fluctuations. We normally want to take a look at yearly outcomes.

Nonetheless, listed below are what we contemplate to be the principle highlights of the final quarter:

  • Regardless of being affected by the hurricanes in August and September, with eight facilities being closed for a complete of 22 days through the quarter, Tanger nonetheless managed to beat consensus estimate for this quarter’s AFFO and raised its year-end occupancy steering to a variety of 96.5-97%.
  • Hurricanes trigger a major discount in visitors throughout and after the storm, main us to imagine that Tanger would have posted extraordinarily favorable outcomes if there had not been any hurricane.
  • Portfolio NOI, which incorporates NOI for non-comparable facilities, elevated 7.9% all through the consolidated portfolio through the first 9 months of 2017 and three.eight% through the quarter. That is very important when you think about how pessimistic the market is. Once more, that is proof to us that the market notion doesn’t coincide with details.
  • Tanger accomplished a $300 million, 10-year bond providing with a three.875% rate of interest, which it used to redeem $300 million of 6.125% debt that was due on June 1, 2020. This transaction, along with a couple of others, will enhance money circulation by about $6 million yearly and AFFO accessible to widespread shareholders by about $zero.06 per share on an annualized foundation.
  • The corporate repurchased 1.9 million of its shares through the yr at a weighted common worth of $25.80 per share, for a complete consideration of $49.three million, most of which was funded by asset gross sales. This leaves $75.7 million remaining beneath its $125 million of share repurchase program for future durations.

The takeaway for us is that our original thesis stays intact. Nothing dramatic has modified since July that may power us to rethink our opinion. Quite the opposite, the information is overwhelmingly optimistic, and subsequently, we stay very assured in our thesis.

12-Month Value Goal – $32 / share

We imagine SKT ought to commerce at comparable valuations to Simon Property Group at 12.eight occasions FFO, Taubman Facilities at 12.1 occasions FFO and Macerich at 13.three occasions FFO. At 12.5 occasions FFO, SKT would commerce at roughly $32/share, or 27% larger from right here. A $32 worth goal inside 12 months just isn’t unreasonable, as SKT traded above $42/share in 2016.

Readers ought to observe that the whole Retail/Mall sector has taken successful lately, together with SPG, TCO, MAC and SKT, as a result of normal unfavorable feeling in regards to the sector. We imagine the sell-off is overdone, and that the common valuations for all of the sectors are more likely to transfer larger in 2018 to ranges above 15 occasions FFO. At 15 occasions FFO, SKT would commerce at $38 (or 50% larger from right here). That is our longer-term goal for SKT, which could possibly be achieved in 2019.

Remaining Ideas

What’s the proper recipe for reaching good funding success? Some would say a strong monitor file, others good progress prospects or just an awfully low share worth mixed with share purchase backs and/or a excessive yield.

With Tanger, you just about get it multi function inventory. It’s a high-quality agency, as measured by its superior belongings, best-in-class administration, strong monitor file and satisfactory steadiness sheet. Furthermore, it’s a Dividend Aristocrat that has elevated its dividend annually since its IPO and is predicted to proceed doing so. Lastly, it’s being supplied at a deeply discounted valuation regardless of robust basic efficiency, and firm administration is aggressively shopping for again its personal inventory.

What else might one actually ask for?

Because of this we contemplate Tanger to be top-of-the-line excessive dividend alternatives available in the market as we speak.

Should you loved this text and want to obtain updates on our newest analysis, click on “Observe” subsequent to my identify on the prime of this text.

About “Excessive Dividend Alternatives”

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Word: All pictures/tables above had been extracted from the Firm’s web site, until in any other case acknowledged.

Disclosure: I’m/we’re lengthy SKT.

I wrote this text myself, and it expresses my very own opinions. I’m not receiving compensation for it (aside from from Searching for Alpha). I’ve no enterprise relationship with any firm whose inventory is talked about on this article.

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