Giancarlo Stanton, the reigning Nationwide League MVP and among the finest right-handed power-hitters within the recreation, will reportedly discover a new residence within the Bronx as a member of the New York Yankees. The Bronx Bombers now have both of the league’s leading home run hitters from 2017: Stanton, who hit 59 residence runs for the Miami Marlins — essentially the most in MLB since 2001, when Sammy Sosa hit 61 and Barry Bonds set the single-season document with 73 — and AL Rookie of the 12 months Aaron Decide, who hit 52.
Stanton will be an excellent match in Yankee Stadium. In line with Baseball Prospectus’s park components, Marlins Park was the seventh-most-difficult home run-hitting park for right-handed batters final season. Yankee Stadium, alternatively, was tied because the second-most-favorable park in baseball for right-handed residence run hitters final season. If you happen to modify Stanton’s 2017 outcomes, utilizing Yankee Stadium instead of Marlins Park, the 28-year-old slugger could be projected to hit 62 home runs.
Stanton is just not merely a home-run hitter — he’s the epitome of a slugger. He hit .281 with an OPS of 1.007 in 2017, creating runs at a fee that was 56 p.c larger than common after adjusting for league and park results (156 wRC+). He averaged an exit velocity of 92 mph final season (seventh) with the third-highest rate of balls hit on the sweet spot, also called a barrel, per plate look (11 p.c). New teammate Decide led the league at 13 p.c.
The Yankees’ 2018 lineup card on opening day might be one of the vital fearsome handed in by a supervisor subsequent season. Stanton and Decide are projected to combine for 10 fWAR in 2018, which, if fulfilled, could be one of many six finest duos within the majors subsequent season. Based mostly on early projections, New York’s 2018 lineup might rating a mean of 5.4 runs per game, barely greater than New York scored in 2017 (5.three). Don’t let the minimal enchancment idiot you — if the Yankees can duplicate final yr’s efforts they need to have an outstanding season.
The Bronx Bombers produced the second-best run differential (plus-198) in 2017, suggesting they need to have completed the common season with 100 wins fairly than their precise document of 91-71. If the Yankees win simply their justifiable share of video games, and get some good luck for a change, they may run away with the AL East and be the prohibitive World Collection favourite.
The largest query is: how a lot will Stanton contribute to the Yankees going ahead, and what is going to that be price relative to the $295 million remaining on Stanton’s contract, which runs by way of 2027.
The reply: a cut price.
Stanton is simply nearing his prime and produced a career-high 6.9 wins above replacement final season, which is worth $55.5 million on the open market per FanGraphs. The newest estimates from Dan Szymborski see Stanton producing 7.2 fWAR for New York in 2018, with declines in every subsequent yr. Utilizing his fWAR projections and inflating the price of a win by 5 p.c every season has Stanton’s worth topping $450 million by 2027.
Steamer projections are much less optimistic for 2018, estimating Stanton to be price 5.9 fWAR in 2018. Utilizing this projection, and lowering that by one-half a win for annually from ages 31 to 27, whereas nonetheless inflating the price of a win by 5 p.c every season, has Stanton’s worth near $400 million over the following 10 years. If you happen to use Steamer’s projections however modify them for simply 120 video games performed every season — changes that mirror Stanton being on the disabled checklist each season from 2012 to 2016 — his worth could be near $300 million over the following decade. In different phrases, Stanton might be injured yearly and nonetheless present worth to the Yankees over the lifetime of the contract.
In line with the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, the Yankees are 6-to-1 to win the 2018 Worlds Series, second-choice behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (9-to-2 odds) and tied with the Houston Astros and Cleveland Indians. However as soon as Decide and Stanton begin hitting balls out of the yard, you possibly can anticipate these odds to shorten shortly, with everybody trying to catch the Yankees as the perfect offensive crew in baseball.
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